Does the thought of nuclear war frighten you? Nuclear superpowers and the most powerful nations in the world engaged in a nuclear war? One conflict in which a few small bombs can destroy an entire city and kill millions at once? Is there any possibility that, after the war, we will have to survive in a nuclear apocalypse? Is it even possible to survive if the bombs destroy most of the resources?
A mushroom cloud from a bomb explosion.
Frightening right? Well, we can thank the 20th century for that.
When the US first tested an atomic bomb, it worked as imagined. We would go on to use two bombs against Japan during the final days of World War II. What was once a prosperous invention unique to the United States became a deadly weapon held by multiple nations, especially Russia, China, and North Korea. Many treaties have attempted to decelerate nuclear proliferation. More recently, however, nuclear bomb usage has been tougher due to current world tensions.
After both countries pulled out of the INF Treaty, originally signed and ratified in 1987 between Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachov, dialogue opened up again to continue bomb control for the 21st century. In 2010, former President Obama and former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed and ratified the New START Treaty, the last nuclear proliferation treaty between Russia and the US. It limits both countries to have up to 1500 atomic bombs and 700 missiles. New START is the final treaty between the two superpowers.
New START was set to expire on February 5, 2021. If it were to lapse without being renewed, its absence would mean fewer checks and balances of power between them and other nuclear superpowers. Without these checks, the world could fall into a devastating war.
Nobody wants this to happen.
Russia and the US have made multiple efforts to extend the treaty for another five years. Talks to extend the treaty have been difficult due to Russia’s aggressive actions and frequent interference in world affairs such as the Ukrainian Crisis. The Ukrainian crisis began in 2014, after Russia invaded Crimea, igniting a war between both nations, with the West supporting Ukraine. Both nations could not agree upon conditions to extend New START. Russia wishes to extend the New START without any changes, as long as the US agrees.
Former President Trump, however, downplayed Russia’s conditions. He failed to make agreements with their Russian counterpart, and his administration proposed drastic changes to it. Trump didn't arrange talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump also kept insulting New START, claiming it was a disadvantage to America's nuclear arsenal.
But the situation is now looking up.
In November of 2020, Joe Biden won the election, defeating Trump in an electoral college landslide of 306 to 232. The President has frequently called for an extension of New START and peaceful dialogue with the Russians, which Putin has welcomed with open arms. Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov embraced these talks and eagerly awaited Biden’s proposal. Russian Ambassador Mikhail Ulyanov supported it, calling it a crucial step towards nuclear proliferation and global stability.
Talks between both powers were a success. On February 3, 2021, Biden and Putin extended the New START treaty for five years. It will now expire on February 4, 2026. Due to the extension, two significant outcomes have emerged. The first is that both Russia and the US have pulled out of the Open Skies Treaty, which allowed both nations to use surveillance planes to spy on each other. The second is that it has caused disapproval and commotion in the White House. Press Secretary Jen Psaki disapproved of Biden’s actions, declaring Russia should be held accountable for their actions, such as the SolarWinds hack and interfering in the elections.
While some peace between both nations now exists, tensions between Russia and the US are still very high. The extension was a good start, but it took a long time for that agreement to be reached. That may not be the case five years from now. What will the future hold for us: nuclear proliferation or nuclear war?
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